Shining a data-driven light on volatile petrol prices

Australia’s unique urban petrol discounting cycle, which benefits savvy drivers but confounds many others, means the cost of filling up can be a gamble.

Given this volatility and the unpredictability of price swings, and our sensitivity to the price of petrol meaning we’ll drive further to find a saving, consumers need help.

Especially with the so-called ‘information asymmetry of oil companies knowing  exactly who is charging what and where at every moment. Consumers have largely been left to their own devices of driving past comparing price boards at least until now.

There have been apps and websites available to help us buy better by increasing transparency and the latest tool from the NSW government’s Fair Trading is both interesting and useful. It is called Fuel Check: 

https://fuelcheck.nsw.gov.au/app

I’ve just logged on, popped in my postcode and found the spread of prices in my patch for Ethanol 94 , aka E10, varies from 112.5c at Budget Rose Bay to 118.9 at Coles Express Randwick.

Sometimes in the metro area the range can be more like 25c, between the cheapest and most expensive, meaning if you need a big fill it’s worth doing some planning.

The data from the scheme, in which 2000 service stations must post any price changes to the Fair Trading website, allows real-time transparency of pricing.

The Minister for better regulation, note not less regulation, Victor Dominello says the 5,500 drivers who use the site daily can see independent servos are consistently cheaper than branded stations.

Independents represented 14 of the 20 cheapest outlets across four fuel types while those run by the oil companies and chains such as the supermarkets had 17 of the 20 most expensive.

The minister claims motorists can save hundreds of dollars a year using the system but not all drivers have access to independents without a fair drive and not all independents are always cheaper.

However it’s a good start. For those interstate the ACCC offers a service indicating where your capital city is on the price cycle: 

https://www.accc.gov.au/consumers/petrol-diesel-lpg/petrol-price-cycles

As prices can vary so widely at the same outlets figuring out where you are in the cycle makes sense.

For example at the time of writing on Wednesday the advice for Melbourne is buy now as prices are at the bottom of the cycle. In Sydney it’s to delay purchasing if you can as prices will fall further.

My experience, with a newly passed P-plate driver draining the tank with abandon, is that low prices might only be on offer for 24 hours or so and then shoot up dramatically. So act quickly to secure savings.

Across the country, and due to an ACCC court action, the full range of real-time price data is being made available to app developers and others to come up with other solutions to increase price transparency.

It’s estimated 60% of motorists pay UNDER  the average price as calculated, mid-way through the price cycle suggesting many more may get on board if it gets easier to know where to make savings.

The NSW evidence seems to be that the supermarket-branded stations are not usually cheaper and that the shopper-docket 4c savings may be illusory.

Will this information be enough to make drivers’ change their petrol buying habits?